As a result, this has led experts from JLL to reduce the forecast volume of investment transactions for the current year from $5 billion to $3.5 billion, Analysts from CBRE has revised its forecast at $4 billion.
“As the events of this year, external sanctions constitute a significant risk”, — commented the head of research at JLL Russia and CIS Olesya Dzyuba. In the near future is difficult to expect significant improvement in bilateral relations, despite the fact that the parliamentary elections in the U.S. in November is likely to weaken an increased tension.
“The expansion of trade wars and doubts of investors concerning emerging markets also dropped a shadow on Russia, reducing the potential for foreign investment. These processes are likely to limit the volume of transactions on the Russian real estate market in the near future,” says Dziuba.
The leaders of the segments
The most popular among investors was the office segment, which accounted for 43% of the total investment, said Knight Frank. On the second place on volume of attracted investments is the retail segment, whose share was 29% of the total volume of investment transactions. The remaining market shares are distributed as follows: warehouse — 15%, land under development — 10%, hotels — 2%, other — 1%. Compared to the first half of the leaders in the segments has not changed, but their ratio of the following: office — 53% retail — 22%, warehouses — 10%, land under development — 11% hotels — 3%.
In annual dynamics, the distribution of investments by segment was as follows: offices — 43%, retail 41%, land under development — 8%, warehouses — 4% hotels — 4%. Thus, there is a significant reduction in the share of retail in annual dynamics — from 41% to 29% and increase the share of warehousing — from 4% to 15%.
In the context of the regions traditionally lead Moscow and Moscow oblast, which attracted 57% of the total investment. The share of Saint Petersburg is 38%. The remaining 5% comes from the following regions: Novosibirsk, Volgograd, Voronezh oblast, Kaluga. In annual dynamics, the share of capital investment declined from 84%, while the share of Saint Petersburg, on the contrary, increased from 12% to 38%.
In the company of JLL also noted a record share of St. Petersburg in the volume of transactions in the country. By results of three quarters of the Northern capital had 31% of investments, compared to 22% in the corresponding period last year. This figure is higher than the proportion in 2011 (27%), when it was sold to one of the iconic sites of St. Petersburg shopping center “Gallery”.
Compared with the results of the third quarter of 2017, the share of foreign investments in 2018 increased by 6 percentage points and amounts to 19% of the total volume of investment transactions. Knight Frank analysts see the increase in the share of foreign investments in the total volume of investment transactions, however, in absolute numbers the growth is not so significant.
A small increase in the share of foreign investment was due to the deal to buy space in the industrial Park “North” of the company Raven Property Group. Interest in Russian assets from foreign investors remains, however, the closing of the transactions is constrained by the volatility of the ruble.
Was in the third quarter and other significant transactions. For example, a group Safmar bought the Media Markt stores for $170 million, and the company “Inprom estate” bought the shopping center “Komsomall” Volgograd over 3 billion rubles. The key trade for trade segment was the purchase of twelve shops of goods for home and repair “K-Rauta” company Leroy Merlin, the cost of which amounted to €169 million French retailer got eight stores in St. Petersburg, three in Moscow and one in Kaluga. An important transaction was the purchase of the premises with an area of 95 000 sq. m. in business center “Nevskaya Ratusha” for the move of the government bodies of St. Petersburg. The amount of the purchase amounted to 14.4 billion rubles.
Among the transactions for the purchase of land for development experts identify the acquisition of a development company Seven Suns Development of land on the Ilimskaya street for construction IFC for 2.2 billion roubles. A landmark was the purchase of investment company “Platform” of 12.8 hectares on the territory of former plant “Borets” for 5 billion rubles, and the purchase by the “Grenelle” of the property complex (including the land plot of 1.5 hectares) for redevelopment for 0.8 billion rubles.
“The increase in the share of St. Petersburg in the total investment structure to a greater extent was influenced by large deals in the first half of the year, such as the purchase of Leroy Merlin stores “K-Rauta” and the acquisition by the government of St. Petersburg space in the business centre “Nevskaya Ratusha”, — explained the Director of Department of financial markets and investments at Knight Frank Igor Roganovich.
Experts and serious impact of online retail on the redistribution of investment interest in the direction of the storage segment. Growth there was from 4% to 15%. The main share in the total investment volume of the storage segment amounted to transactions involving “Mail of Russia” and the Raven Property Group.
The agreement of “Mail of Russia” and the retail network of the goods for house IKEA on the delivery of goods on the territory of Russia explain the interest in the warehouses. A Memorandum of October 11 was signed by the General Director of “Mail of Russia” Nikolay Podguzov and head of IKEA in Russia Pontus of Intell. Now the parties are negotiating the conditions and parameters of future cooperation, the launch of which is scheduled for 2019