Financial analysts polled by Forbes, explained the vigorous dynamics of the shares of NCSP unusually favorable terms of the sale of the company. “Transneft” has paid for 25% of NCSP shares of $750 million, which corresponds to a price level of about 10.5 rubles per share. This one and a half times higher stock prices,” notes the analyst of JSC “Finam” Alexey Kalachev. Sale price NCSP was higher than the maximum historical value of its shares, which was recorded on January 26 this year and amounted to 9.93 ruble. Subsequently, the shares of the company fell by about 30%, dropping by 20 August to the level of 6.2 rubles.
According to the analyst “BCS” Igor Galaktionov, a powerful support factor for the stock of NCSP was the disappearance of the uncertainty which appeared after the arrest of leaders of the group “Amount” brothers Magomedov at the end of March. They are suspected in the abduction from the Federal and regional budgets of 2.5 billion rubles, as well as in the organization of criminal community (item 210 of the criminal code). The criminal case against Magomedov prevented to close the sale of their stake in NCSP in the spring. “Transition fraction “of the Amount” to “Transneft” makes the future of the company more transparent and contributes to higher valuation of its securities,” — said Galaktionov.
Whether to continue the growth of quotations
A day earlier, on October 8, quotes of NCSP’s shares fell 7.7% after the cut-off punters from getting in the register of shareholders to receive dividend of the first half. “The dividend yield of the shares of NCSP was about 7%, and, in fact, this magnitude cut-off after they failed yesterday in price. So that today the paper just returned to the level of Friday’s close,” — said Alexey Kalachev.
A large premium to the market price of the shares of NCSP paid Transneft, will not have a long term impact on the quotes, sure analyst. “Probably, “Transneft” overpaid, to avoid other likely candidates for this package, or observing some unvoiced agreement with seller or third parties. Why so expensive purchase is unlikely, in itself, will affect the value of NCSP” — emphasizes the Kalachev.
Igor Galaktionov reminds us that “Transneft” has increased the share not in the NCSP, and owns her Novoport Holding, so that the company’s shareholders has not changed. “About the price of 10.5 rubles per share, which bought the NCSP, speech does not go yet” — says the expert.
Thus, despite the fact that the transaction was with a substantial premium to the market price, according to the law it does not require placing a mandatory offer to minority shareholders of NCSP, said a senior analyst “ATON” Michael Ganelin. “That’s why today’s rising cost of NCSP shares are very modest in comparison with the transaction price and is more emotional effect,” he concludes.
What to do to investors
Regardless of the transaction with Transneft shares of NCSP is a good asset with medium-term growth, said Alexei Kalachev. “The port is growing transshipment volumes, increased revenue, high profitability, good profit and is attractive to investors dividend policy,” he enumerates.
For the major multiples capitalization of NCSP is too low, indicates Kalachev. “The growth potential of the shares of NCSP within a year is about 30% from current prices. That is until about 9 rubles per share,” says the analyst.
Igor Galaktionov not so optimistic: it is expected the growth of quotations of the shares of NCSP only to 7.5 rubles. Further dynamics will depend on our financial and operating performance of the company.
When investors realize that the offer is not worth waiting for, shares of NCSP may again decline, warns Mikhail Ganelin. “Fundamentally, the company’s shares attractive, but it is not clear how “Transneft” will dispose of the new asset and the NCSP will continue to pay generous dividends,” — he concluded.