Can recover of the action “Yandex”

As told to Forbes managing in one of the investment funds, which reduced 18 Oct its investment in shares of “Yandex”, he is willing to buy the securities IT company only after clear information for new U.S. sanctions. “The emergence of such a strategic investor like a Bank, it automatically transfers to “Yandex” sanctions risks and makes it the target of new restrictions by the U.S. Treasury,” — said the financier. Shares hardly reacted to the news of a possible deal with the “Yandex”. At the auction on 19 October they dipped in price on 1,18% (as of 15.00 GMT).

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The hand of the state

Investors accustomed to thinking of “Yandex” as a private company with a clear business model, modern management, motivated managers and programmers, creating innovative products. For these benefits the securities of the company were rewarded with rating much higher than the average for the stock market in Russia, says the head of the Directorate on operations with shares of BCS Global Markets Oleg Achkasov. Purchase by Sberbank of a large stake in the company can create for investors a big problem. “There is a risk of departure of key people, breaking their motivations and censorship. This led to such a significant revaluation,” explains Achkasov.

He notes that by itself, the savings Bank as well-managed and growing financial performance of the company could be the lesser of two evils in terms of occurrences of state in the capital of “Yandex”. “However, the possibility of state intervention in the activities of the company in the eyes of investors will greatly overshadow the prospects of growth and development. Precedents of state participation in the capital of technological and IT companies, to put it mildly, not very much,” — says the financier.

Now “Yandex” — one of the most successful large Russian companies: the rate of growth of its revenues exceed 25%, reminds the head of operations on the Russian stock market IR “freedom Finance” George Vashchenko. “The company has about 90 billion rubles of cash it generates over 20 billion of free cash flow. It is unknown how these resources will dispose of the shareholder, which is necessary to solve not only their business objectives but also state”, — explains the logic of investors the expert.

He cited the example of Rostelecom, who spent a lot of money to create search engines, but have not achieved significant market share even with the help of state support. “There are fears that a similar fate may befall the projects “Yandex”, in the case of withdrawal of the current top managers and talented professionals. Many of them are now working abroad and sanctions risks are strongly negatively affect the ability to continue foreign operations,” adds Vashchenko.

Is there any chance to increase

After the collapse of quotations “Yandex” on the NASDAQ the dynamics of the securities of Internet companies on Masuria were more subdued, said the analyst “BCS” Igor Galaktionov. The market has already received a rebuttal from Sberbank, which hastened to declare that it does not conduct any negotiations to buy a stake in the Internet company. When the nervous reaction of foreign funds, arranged the sale, will come to naught, you can count on the restoration of quotations of “Yandex”, said Galaktionov.

However, the absence of specific comments from “Yandex” carries with it uncertainty, so that the discount to previous levels in the stock in coming days may remain, warns the analyst. “Long-term view on the prospects of Yandex positive, especially given the fact that the management twice already this year revised upward forecasts for revenue growth for the year 2018”, — he stressed.

Georgy Vashchenko considers that further dynamics of the share of “Yandex” will depend on if the rumors about the preparation of the transaction a real confirmation or not. While the statement a press-services of Sberbank and “Yandex” it is hardly necessary to navigate. “This information may be disclosed on October 29 in the course of reporting or later, the soonest date the last day of November, when will be the largest investment forum with participation of the President and officials of the ministries and the government”, — said the financier.

In his opinion, if the rumors about the deal are confirmed, the shares of “Yandex” will fall “long and serious”. In addition, semi-annual dynamics of the shares of “Yandex” on the stock exchanges in Russia and the United States is characterized as “broad down” or reduction in the wide corridor. “Reporting bad or negative news is an additional reason to reduce positions in Yandex in nevadalas dynamics in recent months,” says Vashchenko. He also points to the alarming situation in the American market in the sector of high-tech companies. “The prices of securities of IT companies fall, Baidou yesterday lost 4%, the Nasdaq is about 2%, so in any case paper “Yandex”, which was seen to some extent as a protective, will now be under pressure,” concluded the analyst.

However, the General Director of “MC Sputnik — capital Management” Alexander Losev believes that even if information about buying a large share in “Yandex” Sberbank confirmed, it will not make the Internet company the state, so investors should not worry about the threat of sanctions. According to him, in the case of transactions market participants should be alarming to quite different questions. “First, there will not be any additional issue. Secondly, in case of repurchase of shares from minority shareholders at a price below market. All the rest is lyrics and emotion,” said Losev. He is convinced that the new corporate action will affect the price of shares and the effectiveness of the management of the company. What are these actions, to judge while early.