While the course of public discussions and the General attitude of the authorities suggest that the banking sector of Russia will be able to cope with the consequences of new sanctions. Business pre-calculates different options. Most likely, in the case of harsh sanctions against Russian state-owned banks monetary authorities can defend the currency deposits of citizens (save for the currency of investment), the question is — in the popularity of these solutions. In the case of payments in dollars may become unavailable, and the correspondent accounts are closed, the possibility of payment in dollar deposits in rubles at the current exchange rate and the transfer of deposits to other banks in rubles to be converted into dollars.
Just a day in the market established a new term “forced conversion”, which received extensive discussion. We have to admit: room for manoeuvre, not so much. Banks have their money back, but only their investors, who have funded active banking operations. So the return of a Deposit amount is an absolute and fundamental point, nuance is only in the choice of currency.
Banks have the opportunity to draw from the population dollars, thus solving the problem of attracting domestic currency liquidity, and it is actively used. In recent years, financial organizations (including the list of systemically important financial institutions) are widely advertised program with attractive rates of deposits in foreign currency. According to the latest statements of the Central Bank, the total volume of Deposit portfolio of natural persons in foreign currency and precious metals amounted to about 5.5 trillion roubles. This is about one-fifth of the savings of Russians in the credit institutions!
Now the banks quite rightly expect assistance from the Central Bank. Despite the fact that the key message of this widely publicized speech Kostina was unconditional security for the repayment of depositors ‘ funds, it could and will want to hear not all. It is easy to imagine the consequences when to a wide range of citizens will take the message about “replacement currency for rubles”. With an equally high probability that it could be raids on banks with the early closure of the Deposit agreement, and the law allows you to do it. May increase the flow of willing to convert rubles into foreign currency and (we have passed), an emergency purchase of household appliances in retail stores. In any case, panic is the most expected reaction to this decision, if it is taken.
To offer alternative options to the owners of foreign currency deposits in addition to the voiced and so quite a wide range of solutions, probably, not in forces neither the Central Bank in the world. But monetary authorities can and should step up efforts to improve the financial literacy of the population. It is necessary to overcome the inertia of our traditional and learn actively managing your savings.