Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard professor and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said that bitcoin may be recouping some of its earlier losses, but there’s more likelihood it goes to $100 than $100,000 in the next 10 years.
In an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Rogoff said that if you take away the possibility of money laundering and tax evasion, bitcoin’s actual uses as a transaction vehicle are very small.
I think bitcoin will be worth a tiny fraction of what it is now if we’re headed out 10 years from now … I would see $100 as being a lot more likely than $100,000 ten years from now.
He said that government regulation would be a trigger for the drop in bitcoin prices, but it would take time to develop a global framework of regulation. “It really needs to be global regulation,” he said. Even if the US cracks down on it and China cracks down, but Japan doesn’t, people will be able to still launder money through Japan.”
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Rogoff believes regulatory moves on bitcoin have slowed because officials want to see how the technology behind cryptocurrencies develops. “They want to see the technology develop,” Rogoff said, adding that the private sector has historically “invented everything” in the history of currency, from standardized coinage to paper currency.
While Rogoff believes a move towards a more cashless society could reduce inequality, he doesn’t seem too keen on bitcoin. Last year, he said that the price of bitcoin will collapse even if the underlying technology thrives.
“My best guess is that in the long run, the technology will thrive, but that the price of bitcoin will collapse,” Rogoff wrote at the time.
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