|West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil||0.3||0.53||0.26||0.39||0.52||0.34|
|Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel||0.29||0.49||0.26||0.35||0.47||0.29|
|High Grade Copper||0.31||0.29||0.16||0.15||0.19||0.25|
Source: Bloomberg Professional (AD1, CD1, BR1, PE1, RU1, RA, SIR1, CL1, HO1, XB1, GC1, SI1, PL1, PA1, HG1, C 1, S 1 W 1, TIO1 and LB1), CME Economic Research Calculations
These correlations offer opportunities for investors who have exposure to either currencies or commodities. For example, one could take a position in a commodity and potentially reduce portfolio risk by taking an opposite position in a positively-correlated currency (Figures 2-5). What makes this even more interesting is the chasm between the carry in currencies and commodities. Some currencies, notably those of emerging markets, exhibit positive interest rate carry versus the U.S. dollar (USD) and other developed market currencies. By contrast, certain commodities exhibit negative carry when they are in contango (when prices in the future are above current levels), a situation that persists much of the time. Essentially, holders of emerging market currencies usually receive an interest rate premium while holders of commodities most often pay storage, insurance, interest and incidental costs.
It’s an even more dramatic story for the Brazilian real: it has fallen by about 45% over the past decade in spots terms but has risen by more than 50% when accounting for currency carry (Figure 7). In a similar vein, the South African rand’s (ZAR) spot rate has fallen by 60% versus USD since 2006, but an investor who remained long futures or invested ZAR in an interest-bearing account would have only lost 20% over the same period (Figure 8).
For other currencies, the story is less dramatic. In the spot market, the Mexican peso would have lost about half of its value since 2006, but an investor who owned the Mexican peso and received Mexican deposit rates while paying U.S. deposit rates would have lost only 20% over the same period (Figure 9).
Interest rate differentials between USD, AUD and CAD are much smaller. U.S. rates are now above Canadian rates and may soon be above those in Australia. That means that CAD carry is negative versus USD at the moment and barely positive for AUD. As such, one doesn’t get much of a buffer in the event that AUD or CAD fall in value versus USD, nor if they rise (Figure 10).
Unlike currencies, commodities don’t pay interest. Moreover, commodities must be stored, sometimes at significant cost. When a commodity’s forward price curve is positively sloped (future prices are higher than the spot price), it is said to be in contango, which implies negative carry. Unfortunately for buy-and-hold commodity investors, most commodity markets are in contango most of the time. Oil is a great example of this (Figure 11) and it’s true of other energy products and, to a lesser extent, metals and agricultural commodities (Figures 12-14).
Given that the commodity export currencies tend to 1) be positively correlated with commodity markets and 2) tend to have positive carry whereas commodities often display negative carry, should one be just long the commodity export currencies and short commodities to hedge? It’s an interesting question and a risky strategy. Here are factors to consider before taking that path:
- What are the current interest rate differentials and where are they likely to head? While looking to the past can be interesting and informative, investing is about the future. Just because interest rate gaps between two currencies were large in the past doesn’t mean that they will remain large in the future. One great indicator of the sustainability of large interest rates gaps between currencies of commodity exporting countries and USD is the total level of debt (public + private). As debt levels rise, interest rates will eventually have to fall to make the debt burden sustainable (Figure 15). To a great extent, this explains why there is now negative carry on CADUSD: Canada’s debt burden exceeds that of the United States. Australia’s debt level is approaching U.S. levels. Brazil’s debt levels are also rising, albeit to moderate levels which might limit BRL’s carry going forward. South Africa, Russia and Mexico have lower levels of debt, affording their central banks more flexibility in terms of tightening policy.
- More broadly, changes in monetary policy expectations are among the factors that move currency markets.
- Is the commodity currently in contango or in backwardation? A commodity, like oil, might tend to be in contango but can sometimes flip into backwardation, in which case it will exhibit positive carry until the backwardation situation reverses. For example, WTI had a strongly positive contango in 2009 but is relatively flat today, implying only a weak negative carry for the moment (Figure 16).