Trump will bomb Damascus: he has no other choice

Ivan Danilov, author of the blog Crimson Alter
Television channel CNN reported that US generals and intelligence agencies have compiled a list of targets in Syria, which bombed after the Syrian army is once again accused of using chemical weapons against civilians and so-called “moderate Syrian opposition.”In this particular case, the real state of affairs does not matter at all: bombs, obviously, will be under any circumstances. Moreover, no measures of information impact and even measures to advance the opening and publishing of the entire mechanism for creating another “chemical provocation” will not stop the US military and Washington hawks. In a sense, it’s not about Assad, or even about the Syrian conflict as a whole. Unfortunately, Syria will be bombed solely on grounds of domestic political expediency. Bombing is not necessary, but at the moment it will be possible to avoid such a scenario only if an issue appears on the domestic political and information agenda that will completely eclipse the “Syrian issue” for several months.

Unfortunately, the “drain” of the already completed plans for bombing, made by CNN, is a kind of image blackmail, the helpless victim of which will be the US president. Trump was put in an extremely uncomfortable position: when the White Helmets, with the support and guidance of the British special services, are organizing another provocation in Syria, he will not have the opportunity to refrain from striking and escalating the conflict, saying something like “The General Staff thought and decided that this was not worth doing. ” After CNN’s throwing in, the refusal to bomb Damascus in response to the (apparently fake) chemical media incident, as well as senators and congressmen of all stripes, will be hanged personally on Trump, who will again be guilty of helping the Kremlin. This is not such a big problem,

“Interim elections” is a specific invention that largely determines the farce character of the American political system. The US presidential election is held every four years, but all 435 members of the congress are re-elected (it is renewed every two years), a third of the senate, and most of the governors. This year the “midterm elections” will be held on November 6, and the political career, freedom and, possibly, even the life of Trump and his family will be bet on them. The matter is that in case of the most unfavorable outcome, the Democratic Party can get the majority both in Congress and in the Senate. In this case, for Trump immediately there is a risk not only that he will be successfully impeached, but also that he and his family (from the son-in-law of Jared Kushner and ending with relatives,

The topic of Russian interference in the elections (past presidential, “interim” and future presidential), and state treason of the president has already become the main agenda of the election campaign. If the American leader refuses to bomb Syria, then we can safely predict: the staging footage with “dying from poisoning sarin’s Syrian children” will be played on all American TV channels throughout the entire campaign, accompanied by comments that Putin definitely has on Trump what it’s a terrible compromising evidence, since Trump refuses to punish “bloody Assad” and “show American power” to Putin. From the point of view of the current Washington administration, this risk can not be tolerated, and therefore Syria is likely to be bombed, and demonstratively and with the loudest media accompaniment, repeatedly exaggerating the damage caused and the losses of the Syrian side. Moreover: it would be in the interests of official Damascus to play Trump in this performance – in the event that the latter really only needs a media show for domestic consumption.

Fortunately, the ruthless political logic of the US election campaign drastically reduces the chances that Washington will want something more than another point demonstration of power, after which it will be possible to declare that the enemy is defeated and justice restored. To declare an attempt to change the regime in Damascus or about the beginning of another war in the Middle East with direct American participation, as well as expressing readiness for a military clash with Russia in order to remove Assad, are all the correct recipes for losing the elections. For Trump’s “core” of voters will reasonably accept any of these statements as evidence of betrayal by the president. At the same time, it is the support of the electoral “core” that is ready to follow Trump into the fire and into the water – his only real insurance against impeachment. Based on the above considerations, it can be predicted that the Americans will bomb Damascus, but to fight in Syria, trying to reverse the course of the civil war and wrest victory from the hands of the Russian-Syrian coalition, they are unlikely to dare. And this is the great merit of the Russian army, as well as the Russian political leadership, which for many years spared no effort and money to develop weapons and especially the so-called “nuclear triad.”

The only thing that Americans can still get in Syria is deep moral satisfaction, and also an occasion to say that if they really wanted, they would have won. You can be one hundred percent confident that in a few years Hollywood will remove a series of blockbusters about the heroic victories of the American special forces in Syria over the Russians, Iranian and Syrian “savages with Kalashnikovs,” and in the 2020s, the average American citizen will be confident that, that the US won the Syrian war, in much the same way as many Americans believe that the United States defeated Vietnam. There is nothing to be done: the era of post-truth has already come, and we, unfortunately, do not yet have an analogue of Hollywood for mass hacking of the brains of the inhabitants of other countries.

In the end, the main victory is in physical, and not in information-virtual reality, and, at least in the Syrian war, this victory is close. Moreover: the victory was economically profitable. Thanks to the successes in Syria, Russia disrupted the Qatari gas pipeline project to Europe, conducted an excellent marketing operation to increase arms exports to the Middle East and, most importantly, could in fact prove to regional players such as Saudi Arabia that it is advantageous and safe for the Kremlin to negotiate the most serious things. For example, on joint control over the world oil market. Against this backdrop, a possible US PR action with a bombing slope is an annoying trifle, which in fact will not change anything.Russia is pushing the US out of the key region of the planet.