Insights and Analysis

Wheat: Will High Inventory Further Dent Prices?

6 months ago adcity Comments Off on Wheat: Will High Inventory Further Dent Prices?
That said, the relationship between the level of ending-stocks-to-use ratio and subsequent price changes is pretty close to neutral (Figure 4).  High level of ending stocks don’t necessarily further depress prices and low levels of ending stocks don’t always cause bull markets.  This makes sense in an efficient market.  Information regarding inventories is quickly incorporated Read More

UK: What to Expect From a Prime Minister Corbyn

7 months ago adcity Comments Off on UK: What to Expect From a Prime Minister Corbyn
On average, the incumbent party has lost about 6% of the votes with respect to the opposition, something that the Tories can ill afford given that they won the June 2017 elections with a plurality of only 2.4%.  The Labour Party has moved into a small but consistent polling lead since the June election.  When Read More

Understanding Treasury Futures

7 months ago adcity Comments Off on Understanding Treasury Futures
About CME Group As the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group is where the world comes to manage risk. Comprised of four exchanges – CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX – we offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes, helping businesses everywhere mitigate the myriad of risks Read More

Ag Hedging Costs Could Spike if La Niña Strikes

7 months ago adcity Comments Off on Ag Hedging Costs Could Spike if La Niña Strikes
About the Presenter Erik Norland is Executive Director and Senior Economist of CME Group. He is responsible for generating economic analysis on global financial markets by identifying emerging trends, evaluating economic factors and forecasting their impact on CME Group and the company’s business strategy, and upon those who trade in its various markets. He is Read More

Hedging Portfolio with Commodity Currencies

7 months ago adcity Comments Off on Hedging Portfolio with Commodity Currencies
Correlation Coefficients AUD CAD BRL MXN RUB ZAR West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil 0.3 0.53 0.26 0.39 0.52 0.34 Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel 0.29 0.49 0.26 0.35 0.47 0.29 Gasoline 0.25 0.39 0.22 0.3 0.42 0.22 Gold 0.25 0.25 0.13 0.04 0.06 0.25 Silver 0.32 0.33 0.22 0.13 0.18 0.31 Platinum 0.33 0.34 0.25 0.19 Read More

The Differing Nature of Event Risk

7 months ago adcity Comments Off on The Differing Nature of Event Risk
About the Presenter Bluford “Blu” Putnam has served as Managing Director and Chief Economist of CME Group since May 2011. With more than 35 years of experience in the financial services industry and concentrations in central banking, investment research, and portfolio management, Blu serves as CME Group’s spokesperson on global economic conditions. View more reports Read More

Will China’s Flat Yield Curve Flatten Commodities?

7 months ago adcity Comments Off on Will China’s Flat Yield Curve Flatten Commodities?
Across the Pacific Ocean, China’s yield curve is telling a starkly different story.  After inverting in May and June, its yield curve remains extremely flat and may be signaling an impending slowdown in the world’s second largest economy (Figure 2).  Yield curves are useful but are by no means perfect indicators of economic downturns and Read More

China: Does Yield Curve Portend a Recession?

7 months ago adcity Comments Off on China: Does Yield Curve Portend a Recession?
About the Presenter Erik Norland is Executive Director and Senior Economist of CME Group. He is responsible for generating economic analysis on global financial markets by identifying emerging trends, evaluating economic factors and forecasting their impact on CME Group and the company’s business strategy, and upon those who trade in its various markets. He is Read More

Oil: Is Climbing U.S. Production About to Peak?

7 months ago adcity Comments Off on Oil: Is Climbing U.S. Production About to Peak?
The number of operating oil rigs plateaued at just over 750 in July, according to data from oil services provider Baker Hughes.  This by itself may point to a decline in U.S. oil production. However, it takes, on average, about four months or so for an oil rig to begin producing significant amounts of oil Read More

Uneven Debt Levels Complicate Eurozone Monetary Policy

7 months ago adcity Comments Off on Uneven Debt Levels Complicate Eurozone Monetary Policy
The European and U.S. financial crisis essentially had the same underlying cause.  By the middle of the last decade, total debt levels (public + private) on both sides of the Atlantic climbed to levels that were unsustainable, with central bank policy rates in the 4-5% zone.  There are numerous other superficial similarities between the U.S., Read More